PARIS, March 19, 2010 (AFP) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy faces pressure to rethink policies and reshuffle ministers as his party heads for a thrashing in the second and final round of regional elections on Sunday.
    The polls are as much a popularity test for Sarkozy as a vote for who runs local transport, schools and development budgets -- and observers say it will shape the future of his presidency.
    "Many of the political strategies of the coming years will be based on this, the last election" before the presidential vote in 2012, said Pascal Perrineau, head of a research institute at the elite Sciences-Po school.
    "If the left takes all the regions, the president will be obliged to think of a political response," Perrineau told AFP.
    Elected in 2007 on promises to cut unemployment and boost France's economy, Sarkozy has seen his reforms driven off track by the worst recession since World War II which has destroyed jobs and prompted costly stimulus measures.
    Social and racial tensions have also risen in recent months when his government launched a debate on national identity and proposed to ban full Islamic veils -- moves widely seen as stigmatising Muslims and immigrants.
    If the opposition Socialists and left-wing allies crush Sarkozy's UMP party as expected on Sunday, "there could be a ministerial reshuffle where he replaces certain ministers who have caused him problems," Perrineau said.
    "We can quite well imagine for example that he will seek to make (Immigration Minister) Eric Besson responsible for the debate on national identity," which was marred by racism and is now all but abandoned.
    A report in the pro-government daily Le Figaro cited party members including ex-ministers urging Sarkozy to shift right, focus on pensions, jobs and security, and fire some who have been in his government from the start.
    It said some influential right-wingers wanted to get rid of Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, one of the talents that Sarkozy poached from the Socialist camp after he was elected.
    Sarkozy acknowledged that "some changes to government" were possible after the regional vote, in an interview with Le Figaro magazine ahead of the first round.
    But he voiced confidence in Prime Minister Francois Fillon, who is sailing ahead of him in the popularity ratings.
    The president himself appears less and less popular. Pollster Ifop says his approval rating is at its lowest since his election, at 36 percent.
    Sarkozy lost ground in the first round to the far-right National Front which won more than 11 percent of the vote, while the left is aiming to expand its control of France's regional councils to all the mainland's 22 regions.
    "A whole section of his electorate stayed away from the polls" in the first round last Sunday, Perrineau said of Sarkozy.
    "He has to reconnect with a part of the popular vote that supported him in 2007. He has to send them signals on unemployment and on the cost of living for the working class."
    Sarkozy has spoken of a "pause" in his reform drive next year, after settling its big remaining issue: his plans to raise the retirement age and reform the generous pensions of some public sector workers.
    The president needs "words and gestures that can rally his (UMP) family and sketch the future prospects" for sensitive issues such as pensions and public spending, a UMP member of parliament, Chantal Brunel, said on Friday.
    She said the government Sarkozy set up after being elected in 2007 has since "rather lost its way."