PARIS, March 17, 2010 (AFP) - The most miserable week of Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency seems likely to end with another electoral humiliation, but are his current woes simply mid-term blues or a fatal blow to his re-election hopes?
    The second round of voting for France's regional councils could see Sarkozy's right-wing party wiped from the electoral map, and will certainly undermine support for him within his own nervous camp.
    Sarkozy took power in 2007 and for two years appeared be an almost unstoppable force, centralising power in his office and riding roughshod over both a divided opposition and dissidents within his right-wing UMP party.
    Now, weakened by a global crisis that derailed his economic reform plans, Sarkozy faces a growing protest vote on his far right, a revived Socialist opposition and the threat of challengers from within UMP ranks.
    "Sarkozyism is going through its first serious crisis," said Stephane Rozes, chairman of the CAP political consultancy, arguing the president has lost touch with day-to-day economic problems facing voters.
    While some of the public once admired Sarkozy's determination to press ahead with unpopular reform, a majority now prefer his less charismatic but more consensual prime minister, Francois Fillon, or opposition candidates.
    In Sunday's first round of voting, Sarkozy's UMP trailed the Socialists with 26.3 to 29.5 percent of the national vote.
    The left-leaning greens of Europe Ecologie scored 12.5 percent and then made regional electoral pacts with the Socialists for the second round, boosting their joint score well ahead of that of the mainstream right.
    Meanwhile, the far-right National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen did well enough to stay in the race in 12 of France's 22 mainland regions, meaning much of its 11 percent of the vote will remain outside Sarkozy's reach.
    "Nicolas Sarkozy needs to hear the message. He has to change course," said Francois Baroin, a lawmaker from Sarkozy's own party, lamenting "the worst result for the parliamentary right in 30 or 35 years."
    While the left has been papering over its own cracks in order to exploit Sarkozy's problems, tough criticism has come from the right, whose members speak of a myopic president, living in denial and surrounded by yes men.
    The satirical weekly Le Canard Enchaine, drawing on its usually reliable mix of confidential sources, painted a picture of a stunned Sarkozy isolated from reality and refusing to see how far his stock has fallen.
    By insisting his supporters press on without acknowledging the voters' concerns, Sarkozy has only increased his isolation, experts warn.
    Gael Sliman, assistant head of the BVA polling agency, told AFP this was sending the worst message: "I'm not taking your vote into account."
    Other commentators suggested the scale of the defeat might even derail Sarkozy's plans to stand for re-election to a second five-year mandate in 2012.
    "Nicolas Sarkozy a candidate in 2012? Nothing is less certain," declared commentator Jean-Francois Kahn in the weekly Marianne.
    Kahn wrote that on Sunday, right-wing lawmakers had made a "terrible discovery: their enchanted standard-bearer has become their worst handicap ... thus Sarkozyism is condemned to decay."
    On Tuesday, a BVA survey conducted just before the regional poll showed voters would prefer by 43 percent to 29 that the right be represented in 2012 by Fillon, rather than his boss Sarkozy.
    Meanwhile, pollsters Ifop say Sarkozy approval rating is floundering at its lowest level since his election, at 36 percent.
    Both Sliman and Rozes warned it might be premature to write Sarkozy off, given that the national vote will be run on different lines than the regional one and given that the Socialists have yet to pick up steam.
    Nevertheless, the manner in which Sarkozy reacts to Sunday's likely defeat will set the tone of the rest of his difficult first term.